The Pop Pirate

Wind of Change...

So I've read a number of articles recently (thanks, Ben) about some changes that have come about that have shook the foundations and assumptions that are the basis for the entertainment industry. I'll apologize now for the amount of research involved here, but I think we're seeing here are the first signs of a major revolution to come.

First of all, this article from Slate describes how new products and practices are impacting movie marketing. Then, I read this article about internet technology, such as Amazon.com recommendations, that are changing the way that all media is marketed, and even creating new niche markets for previously unmarketable material. Finally, I read this article about the elements that have traditionally combined to make successful media franchises.

All of these articles, and others I've read in The New York Times, MSNBC.com and Entertainment weekly have made it clear to me that a major media paradigm shift on the order that we haven't seen since the invention of movies and radio.

It started with the music. About 10 years ago we started seeing cheap and easy ways to manufacture high-quality CDs from digital sources. Napster was a big step up from taping your favorite songs off the radio. Before long, private citizens were manufacturing top of the line DVDs of movies and TV shows in the privacy of their own homes.

Add in the growing popularity of TiVo and major media sources are being stripped of their sources of income. As my friend Ben said, "who watches commercials?" At some point, companies are going to start seeing a lack of sales impact due to TV commercials. Sometime soon, movie budgets are going to start declining due to lack of revenue- look at this years box office receipts, and you'll see what I mean.

What this means ultimately, I don't know. Maybe they'll ban P2P networks, maybe commercials will start running on the screen at the same time as the shows. Maybe commercials will become obsolete and all TV will become subscription. But I do think that the times, they are a changin' and the entertainment industry better change, or it'll be left behind.

What's at stake? For TV, I think free, broadcast TV could go bye-bye, or the entertainment value of shows could be impacted by increasingly obtrusive ads. For Movies, declining revenues due to pirating and home theaters might mean less risky productions, which might mean the elimination of the art-house. But for the music industry, they could loose it all. In today's world, we don't need them at all. People can create music for very cheap, and distribute it directly to the public. The only question left for them is how long will it take.

posted by Jeff @ 7:19 PM